KVIG Informative

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran lasted less than three weeks. Overnight into Thursday, U.S. forces struck approximately 90 targets inside Iran. Iran responded with drone and missile attacks on American military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. Supreme Leader Khamenei is being buried today. The war that was supposed to be over is back.

U.S. Central Command confirmed Thursday morning that American forces conducted strikes against approximately 90 targets inside Iran overnight, hitting missile and drone storage sites, air defense systems, and radar installations. The strikes were described by the Pentagon as a response to Iranian attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran carried out after accusing the United States of violating the terms of the memorandum of understanding signed at the G7 summit in Versailles on June 18. Iran’s military responded to the American strikes with drone and missile attacks against U.S. military installations in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned in a statement published by Iranian state media that further escalation would follow if American strikes continued.

President Trump, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One as he flew back from the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, declared the ceasefire over. Every time they hit us, we’re gonna hit them twenty, Trump said. He said U.S. forces had delivered an overwhelming response the night before and warned that the next round would be even larger if Iran continued its attacks. Trump flew home on the older Air Force One rather than the new Qatari-donated Boeing 747-8, a security precaution taken at the urging of the Secret Service amid the resumed hostilities, according to sources familiar with the decision. Trump denied that security concerns drove the aircraft swap, saying the new plane was sent ahead to make stops at U.S. military bases to be shown to troops.

The collapse of the ceasefire was not a surprise to analysts who had been tracking the fragility of the June 18 agreement. The memorandum of understanding signed in Versailles never had its full terms made public. Both sides accused the other of violations in the days that followed. U.S. forces continued conducting what CENTCOM described as self-defense strikes even after the ceasefire was announced. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes that began the war, is being laid to rest Thursday at a shrine in Mashhad following a multiday funeral procession that drew millions of mourners and at least eight heads of state. The funeral of the man whose death started the war is happening on the same day the war resumed in full.

The Strait of Hormuz, which had partially reopened following the June 18 deal, is again under threat. The Iranian tanker attacks that triggered Thursday’s U.S. response targeted vessels transiting the waterway that carries approximately a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Oil prices rose sharply on the news of resumed hostilities, reversing the declines that had followed the ceasefire announcement. Gasoline prices, which had begun to moderate after the brief ceasefire, are expected to rise again. The Federal Reserve, which had already signaled the possibility of a rate hike later this year based on elevated inflation, is now facing an energy price shock that could accelerate that timeline.

For Nevada, the resumed war arrives at a moment when the hospitality industry had begun to see some stabilization in energy and transportation costs following the brief ceasefire period. The Las Vegas Valley’s economy is deeply sensitive to fuel prices through their effect on air travel, ground transportation, and the cost of goods moving through supply chains into the casino-resort corridor. A sustained return to $4-plus gasoline would directly affect visitor spending patterns and the margins of a hospitality industry already navigating labor cost pressures from the Culinary Union’s contracts.

There is no diplomatic framework currently in place. The Versailles MOU is effectively void. The Qatar channel that had facilitated the ceasefire negotiations is now the location of a U.S. military base that Iran just struck. The next phase of this conflict has no defined end state, no mediating party that both sides trust, and no timeline for de-escalation that either government has articulated publicly. The war that was declared over on June 18 is back. The question of how it ends is the same question it was on February 28.