KVIG Informative

Flávio Bolsonaro, son of a former president convicted of attempting a coup, finished first at the ballot box. Lula, who expected to win outright, has three weeks to recover 2.2 million votes.

Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator from the Liberal Party, won 47.03% of the vote in Brazil’s first round on Sunday, October 4. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took 45.16%, according to the Superior Electoral Court’s official count with 100% of polling stations tallied, the news agency EFE reported. No candidate cleared 50% of valid votes, so the two will face each other in a runoff on October 25.

The gap was 2.2 million votes: 56,104,503 for Bolsonaro and 53,879,538 for Lula, per EFE. More than 158 million Brazilians were eligible to vote. The polls did not see it coming. Quaest published on September 21 that Lula led the first round 37% to 33%, and Euronews reported the president called the result “unexpected.”

Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, the former president convicted of attempting a coup. According to AP, the senator campaigned on a promise to free his father and bring him back into politics. EFE reported that his 56.1 million votes exceed what Jair Bolsonaro won in 2018 and 2022.

The surname won beyond the presidential race, too. Michelle Bolsonaro, the former president’s wife, was elected senator for the Federal District with 29% of the vote, according to Europa Press. In São Paulo, the country’s most populous state, Tarcísio de Freitas of Republicanos was reelected governor in the first round with 62.75% of valid votes, with more than 95% counted, per Portafolio.

The eliminated candidates’ voters now matter most. Cury and Santos, who together drew 6.1 million votes, announced they will not endorse either finalist, according to EFE. Romeu Zema made clear he will vote against Lula. Ronaldo Caiado said he will consult the leadership of the Social Democratic Party before deciding.

At 80, Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Four years ago he beat Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff, 50.9% to 49.1%. This time he starts from behind, after finishing second in a first round the polls had him winning.

The result will be read abroad. AP describes Flávio Bolsonaro as an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump and notes that Lula repeatedly warned Washington not to meddle in the election. If Lula wins, according to AP, Brazil will keep its distance from the United States and preserve its alliance with Beijing. Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella backed Bolsonaro, per Cambio.

Bolsonaro’s lead is 2.2 million votes. The votes of Cury and Santos, who say they will align with no one, are nearly three times that figure. On October 25, Brazil is not just choosing between two candidates: it is deciding whether the Bolsonaro name returns to the Planalto Palace.